Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Market Moves 3/4-8/2013
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. Australian Cash Rate and RBA’s Rate Statement
03/05/2013 – Tuesday at 3:30 am GMT
What will it affect: AUD
Forecast: No change is expected from 3%
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: As we already know, the official bank rate is one the most important financial events for a currency. For this release no change is expected but the Rate Statement will probably contain insights about the decision and hints about future rate changes. Until 2007 the RateStatement was released only if the Rate changed.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased
DOWN if the Rate is decreased
How I would trade this event: If the volatility will be high at the time, I would wait for a clear direction and trade accordingly.
2. Bank of Japan Rate decision and Press Conference
03/07/2013 – Thursday early morning (GMT)
What will it affect: JPY
Forecast: Unchanged from 0.10%
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: It is unlikely that the rate will change, but surprises can happen. However the BOJ Press Conference that follows is more likely to generate strong moves. The exact time of release is not known at the moment and for that you will have to keep an eye on the mentioned websites.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or if the press conference participants are hawkish
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or if the press conference participants are dovish
How I would trade this event: I don’t like to trade in the middle of an important press conferenceexcept if clear indications of direction are given. Otherwise, I wait for things to calm down.
3. UK Official Bank Rate
03/07/2013 – Thursday at 12:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: Unchanged from 0.50%
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: Again, no change for the UK bank rate is expected but if one occurs, the Monetary Policy Committee will release a Rate Statement, detailing the reasons behind the rate change. Keep an eye on the Asset Purchase Facility, released at the same time and expected to remain unchanged at 375B. Higher numbers for APF could weaken the pound.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased
DOWN if the Rate is decreased
How I would trade this event: GBP is surrounded by negative sentiment so I wouldn’t place any Call trades on pairs where the pound is base currency except if the rate is increased or the Asset Purchase Facility is decreased.
4. Euro Minimum Bid Rate and ECB Press Conference
03/07/2013 – Thursday at 12:45 pm GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: Unchanged from 0.75%. *NOTE: DailyFX anticipates the rate will increase to 0.8%. However, I believe this is just a printing mistake. No other financial website posted a similar forecast and I believe DailyFX will update their information*
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: The actual rate decision tends to be overshadowed by Mario Draghi’s (ECB President) Press Conference and his comments. If the rate is changed, we will see volatility right away but if it is left unchanged, the press conference will be the main market mover. The Press Conference begins 45 minutes after the Rate is announced.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or if the ECB President is hawkish
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or if the ECB President is dovish
How I would trade this event: I would trade according to Mario Draghi’s attitude and answers because I don’t think the rate will be changed
5. US Non-Farm Employment Change
03/08/2013 – Friday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, S&P 500, DOW JONES, some US Stocks
Forecast: 158K from a previous of 157K
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: This indicator represents the monthly change in employment, excluding the farming sector. Job creation is an important indicator of future consumer spending and overall state of the economy. Better than expected numbers are beneficial for the US economy. This is one of the most respected and anticipated US economic indicators and its impact is huge at times.
Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 158K
DOWN if the actual number is lower than 158K
How I would trade this event: I would buy 15 minute Calls on S&P 500 if the number will be higher than 165K.
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***Note: The exact time, date and value for the release of the Earnings reports may change or it is not announced at the moment. It is possible that the date will be updated as well. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for the actual release.