Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecasts 02/24-28/2014
The Must-Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. US Consumer Confidence
02/25/2014 – Tuesday at 3:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 80.2 from the previous 80.7
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending. If consumers are optimistic about present and future economic conditions, they are likely to spend more. The survey is based on a large sample of about 5000 households and it’s regarded as a high impact indicator.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 80.2
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 80.2
How I would trade this event: I would buy a one hour Put on GBP/USD if the value will be higher than 80.5
2. UK Gross Domestic Product
02/26/2014 – Wednesday at 09:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: unchanged, 2.8%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: The Gross Domestic Product is the most important gauge of an economy’s overall performance. Most of its components are known in advance and that’s why its value is predicted with increased accuracy; however, the GDP release remains a potential market mover and a high impact event.
Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 2.8%
DOWN if the value is lower than 2.8%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on GBP/USD if the value will not be higher than 2.8%
3. German Consumer Price Index
02/27/2014 – Thursday 1:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: unchanged 1.3%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The CPI shows the change in prices paid by consumers for the products they purchase and it’s the main gauge of inflation. Since the German economy is the most important among the Euro Zone states, the indicator holds a great importance.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 1.3%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 1.3%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a Daily Put on EUR/USD if the value of the CPI will be lower than 1.2%
4. US Durable Goods Orders
02/27/2014 – Thursday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: -0.7% from the previous -4.2%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years are considered “durable” and often show the optimism of consumers regarding economic conditions if more orders are placed. Also, more orders signify that producers will increase activity to fill them.
Directional bias: UP the actual value is higher than -0.7%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than -0.7%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on EUR/USD if the value will be higher than 0.0%
5. US Preliminary Gross Domestic Product
02/28/2014 – Friday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: US, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 2.6% from the previous 3.2%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: As mentioned above, the Gross Domestic Product is an economy’s main performance gauge. Better than expected values are beneficial, signifying increased economic activity and usually tend to strengthen the US Dollar.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 2.6%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 2.6%
How I would trade this event: I would place an hourly Call on USD/JPY if the value will be higher than 2.5%
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.