Tip from the Geek – Top 5 Binary Options Trading Tips List 4/1-8/2013
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Will A New Month Bring April Fools….
It’s a new month and a new quarter. This week also brings the next round of all important monthly economic releases. If today is a sign of what to expect then this month could bring us some more volatility. Last month brought us many signs of strength but also signs of weaknesses, at least some potential weaknesses. The big question is if the world economy is actually stabilizing and if expected growth is actually materializing. In the U.S. data in March supports a growing housing market and an improving jobs market. Last month we got a nice little surprise in unemployment and I think that we could get one again this month.
One of my favorite bundles of data is the ADP/Challenger/NFP/Unemployment rate figures we will get this week. ADP and Challenger come out on Wednesday around 8:30 AM eastern time (GMT-5) and will provide some foreshadowing of what to expect Friday. Friday’s releases include the NFP and unemployment rate, in between ADP and NFP is the weekly jobless claims data. ADP and NFP are both expected to increase by more than 200,000 jobs. This is a very bullish estimate and if correct could help send the S&P 500 up and over the all time intra-day high.
Other market moving events this week include a whole host of PMI’s from across Europe and the EU. Spain, Italy, Germany, France and England are all on the list. Perhaps of greater importance is the ECB meeting on Thursday. There has been a little speculation of a rate change or other policy easing at this meeting so it, and the statements, will be heavily dissected. The BOJ is also meeting this week, Wednesday to be exact, and they will surely make a policy change. This change has been expected for quite some time will impact the Nikkei and every major currency pair that includes the JPY.
1. S&P 500 To Make A New High
S&P 500
Call/Put = Call
Entry = below 1460
Expiration = end of the week
My Trading Advice
The S&P made a new all time high last week and looks like it is going higher. The only hurdle I see for this week is the state of the U.S. economy. The economic reports this morning were a mixed bag but both still support a growing, strengthening economy. Today, Monday, we got new construction spending and ISM figures. Construction spending was a pleasantly surprising +1.2%. This is ahead of expectations and in line with the current idea of a construction/housing led recovery. The ISM reading for March was 51.3, less than anticipated but still firmly above 50 and expansionary.
This weeks data, unless there is some underlying negative I have not considered, should remain in-line with recent trends. Unemployment claims should be under 250,000, ADP and NFP should be above 200,000 and unemployment should remain steady at 7.7%. World events and policy may change the long term outlook on some trades but the near-term S&P trades will be dominated by domestic reports. The index dropped this morning after the “disappointing” ISM number but held above 1560. There is a chance for some downside early in the week as we await these important releases but I am expecting the week to be a net positive. Downside support exists around 1550 with resistance at the all-time intraday high near 1572. I am trading call on the S&P with a target entry below 1560 and an end of the week expiration.
2. Germany Rebounding?
DAX
Call/Put = Call
Entry = below 8000
Expiration = end of week
My Trading Advice
Germany is still expected to have rebounded last quarter. The data supports it and strength in the U.S. and now in China help with that view. Germany is an export economy so any improvements in its two biggest trading partners will surely be seen here is as well. The caveat is that the data may be mixed. During a stabilization when one area expands another contracts. The data will be important on a net basis, individual reports may serve as entry points. Another bonus for the DAX right now is Cyprus. The fear driven sell-off last month has brought the DAX down to long term support and a great place to get into calls. Now that Cyprus is more or less water under the bridge the true economic fundamentals of Germany and the EU can take over. Wednesday’s ECB meeting and rate decision could be a big turning point for this index. I am trading calls on the DAX with a target entry below 8,000 and an end of the week expiration.
3. Euro Support May Be At Hand
EUR/USD
Call/Put = put
Entry = above 1.2830
Expiration = end of the week
My Trading Advice
There is a lot of reason to expect some volatility in the Euro this week. The ECB meeting, the BOJ meeting and U.S. economic data will all play their parts. The ECB meeting will be the real important event of the week for the euro and could provide support for the pair long term. In the short term I see the pair moving lower to the next support before making any bullish move. U.S. strength and lingering fear of an EU economic collapse will keep pressure on this pair. I am trading the EUR/USD with a put, targeting an entry above 1.2830 and an end of the week expiration. The pair is currently just below the resistance of 1.2880 and indicated down. Next support exists around 1.2750.
4. Japan, Abe, Kuroda and The Yen
Nikkei 225
Call/Put = Call
Entry = below 12,100
Expiration = end of the week
My Trading Advice
The Nikkei has been consolidating over the last month in preparation for Kuroda’s first BOJ meeting. That meeting is this week on Wednesday and it should spark another yen based rally in Japanese stocks. The Nikkei is sitting just above the support of 12,000, a level it attained in the month running up to Kuroda’s nomination and confirmation. I am trading calls on the Nikkei with an entry below 12,100 and an end of the week expiration.
5. Yen, Yen and more Yen
USD/JPY
Call/Put = Call
Entry = below 93.25
Expiration = end of the month
My Trading Advice
The BOJ is finally going to make the moves necessary to devalue the yen and boost the economy of Japan. At least it is expected to. If it doesn’t there is a lot of downside potential in this pair. I think that after all the talk over the last few months policy change is inevitable. This will bring the bull back into the USD/JPY trade and could take it as high as 100 in the next few weeks and months. I am trading calls on the USD/JPY with a target entry below 93.25 and an end of the week expiration.
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That’s it for this week; Michael will be here next week with fresh trading tips. Meanwhile, we will be testing Michael’s tips to see what kind of an “expert” he really is. All trading assets and expiry times featured in Michael’s trading tips are based on AnyOption Binary Options Trading Platform.
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