The Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Forecasts 08/11-15/2014
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment
08/12/2014 – Tuesday at 09:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: 18.2 from the previous 27.1
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: ZEW is a survey which asks institutional investors and analysts to evaluate the current economic situation and forecast the future economic direction. Although a number above 0.0 indicates optimism, since the beginning of this year we have seen a constant decrease of this report showing us that experts slowly lose their confidence in Germany’s economic situation.
Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 18.2
DOWN if the actual number is lower than 18.2
How I would trade this event: I would buy an end of day Put on DAX if the actual value will be as expected or lower.
2. UK Claimant Count change
08/13/2014 – Wednesday at 8:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: -29.7K from current -36.3K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: For every country, reports that focus on employment situation are very important as they serve as indicators of labor market health and consequently they could predict economic health and growth. Traders should also keep an eye on UK’s Unemployment Rate which is released at the same time. Higher job growth is seen as positive and could strengthen the Pound.
Directional bias: UP if the actual number is lower than -29.7K
DOWN if the actual number is higher than -29.7K
How I would trade this event: I would buy a 15 min Call on GBP/JPY if the actual number will be lower than expected.
3. BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks
08/13/2014 – Wednesday at 9:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: BOE’s Inflation Report is released quarterly and it is always accompanied by a press conference held by BOE’s Governor together with other MPC members. The main focus will be the content of the Inflation Report which includes BOE’s forecast for inflation and economic direction for the next two years.
Directional bias: UP if the President’s attitude is hawkish
DOWN if the President’s attitude is dovish
How I would trade this event: I will trade after the event is over if a clear direction is in place.
4. United States Retail Sales
08/13/2014 – Wednesday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: unchanged 0.2%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: This monthly report is considered important because it offers an early and quite broad view into consumer demand, confidence and spending data. Because of its earliness this report has a rather annoying flaw: it is quite common for the figure to be revised and it’s not unusual for it to change from positive to negative or vice versa. Despite these significant monthly revisions this indicator is still a highly regarded one for the US.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.2%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.2%
How I would trade this event: I would place an hourly Call on USD/JPY if the value will be higher than 0.2%.
5. German Preliminary GDP (quarter over quarter)
08/14/2014 – Thursday 06:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: -0.1% from current 0.8%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: Preliminary is the first released version of GDP and tends to have the highest impact on the market. This report is published 45 days after the quarter ends and it is a comprehensive measure of Germany’s overall production and consumption of goods and services. Negative readings of this indicator are usually seen as bearish for Euro.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than -0.1%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than -0.1%
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on EUR/JPY if the value will be as expected or lower.
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.