The Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Forecasts 04/14-19/2014
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. United States Retail Sales
04/14/2014 – Monday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 0.8% from the previous 0.3%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer spending is essential for the US economy representing about two thirds of all economic activity and retail sales represent one third of such spending. This facts combined with its timeliness makes Advanced Retail Sales a widely followed indicator of consumer spending thus promoting it into the significant market mover category.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.8%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.8%
How I would trade this event: I would place a 15 min Call on USD/JPY if the value will be higher than 0.8%
2. United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (year over year)
04/15/2014 – Tuesday at 08:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: 1.6% from the previous 1.7%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: Being the most important inflation gauge, the indicator is closely watched by the Bank of England, in an attempt to contain inflation and to maintain price stability. Values outside a certain range are countered by changing the Interest Rate or applying other measures.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 1.6%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 1.6%
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Call on GBP/USD if the value will be higher than 1.7%
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment
04/15/2014 – Tuesday at 09:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: 46.3 from the previous 46.6
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: Although there are other surveys focused on the economic sentiment, this one is derived from the opinions of professional analysts and institutional investors, a fact which makes it more reliable. Analysts and investors are better informed than the large public and this makes their opinion weigh more.
Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 46.3
DOWN if the actual number is lower than 46.3
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on EUR/USD if the actual value will be lower than 44.
4. Euro Zone Consumer Price Index
04/16/2014 – Wednesday 09:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: unchanged 0.5%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: As already mentioned, the CPI measures inflation and the ECB aims to keep inflation just below 2.0%. The current value of the CPI is considered too low and an increase would strengthen the Euro because it would bring inflation closer to ECB’s target.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.5%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.5%
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Call on EUR/USD if the value of the CPI will be higher than 0.5%
5. Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision
04/16/2014 – Wednesday at 2:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: CAD, Canadian stocks and indices
Forecast: unchanged 1.0%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Interest Rates govern short-to-medium term movement and a rate hike is viewed as bullish while the opposite is true for a rate cut. The Governor of the Bank of Canada will hold a press conference at 3:15 pm GMT and will offer details about current and future economic conditions; although the rate is not expected to change, volatility will most likely be generated by the Governor’s speech.
Directional bias: UP the Rate is increased or the Governor has a hawkish attitude
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Governor has a dovish attitude
How I would trade this event: Once volatility is back to normal and a clear direction is established I will trade accordingly.
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.