Geek February Recap – Which Way Did He Go?
You can’t win every month and since last month was so dam good, I guess it’s only fair that this month kind of sucked.
Trading Tips Recap – Which Way Did He Go?
After looking at my results for March I sat back and though to myself, what the hell happened Mikey boy!? Honestly, it’s like I’d never traded before but at least it wasn’t my worst month ever, just damned close, too close for my liking. Because of the calendar it was another month with only 4 Monday’s which means only 20 tips and no extra week for me to try and recover from this embarrassing situation. The good news is that it didn’t wipe me out, far from it, and I’ve got tough skin. I may not bounce back right away but I am confident I will bounce back, and in the end I’m still profitable over the long term and growing my account.
Total Cost Of Trading = $10,000
Total Return On Trades = $7,400
Net Return On Investment = (-26%)
So, four weeks in the month means 20 tips. Of those 20 I won only 8 which is truly a sad turn of events. My total cost of trading was $10,000, my total return on trading was only $7,400 which results in a win rate of only 40% and a net ROI of -26%, ouch. On a week to week basis performance was pretty bad, I had one week with 5 losses out of 5 trades and then another with 4 losses. The other two weeks weren’t quite as bad but not enough to offset my losses. One week I won 3 trades, the other 4.
What Happened In March?
I keep asking myself that same question and I still can’t quite figure it out but basically, I got caught with my pants down. The Trump rally of February was awesome. The problem is that it didn’t carry into March the way I thought it would. While I was expecting the market to continue moving higher it fell, when I though the correction would go deeper it didn’t and when I thought near-term ranges would hold the market broke right on through to the other side. My learning experience; volatility bites, don’t reverse yourself too soon and avoid bucking the trend. All things I’ve learned before, over and over again.
Week One March 6th 2017
“The ECB is going to be important this week but the US data will be more so, and all will be waiting on the FOMC meeting next week anyway because they are expected to raise rates. I’m bullish on equities and the dollar, bearish on commodities gold and oil.” This was not the worst week, or the best. I won three trades, oil gold and the yen, but lost out to ECB induced volatility in the EUR/USD and topping in the SPX.
Week Two March 13th 2017
“It’s FOMC week and that means there will be some volatility in equities, the dollar and commodities, and in world indices. I’m bullish, the US is on track for GDP growth, earnings growth and expansion of both. Now we just need to get past that damned FOMC meeting.” If only I’d known how right I was. The FOMC sent markets moving, in all the wrong directions. I won my trade on the SPX but lost out on all dollar driven pairs and gold, and on oil because of pesky OPEC talks supporting prices.
Week Three March 20th 2017
“This could be a lackluster week of sideways, range bound trading with a possibility of near term corrections in short and long term trends. Not much data, not much earnings, lots of Fed Speak and plenty of conjecture. Be careful.” I was fairly right about this week too, the market was listless but thankfully moved in predicted directions within ranges. I won 4 trades this week, my best week, losing out only on the USD/JPY because I traded against the dollar.
Week Four March 27th 2017
“ACA reform failed to pass, well it failed to come to a vote anyway, and with it falls hopes for the Trump agenda. This is causing a correction in many markets, near term trends have reversed, but will set us up for new signals later on down the road. Until then I suggest you go with the flow, I am, and keep the trades small to avoid added risk in uncertain markets.” This is the week that really sucked. The ACA did not pass and it looked like the market was set to make a much deeper correction, and I traded along with that view. What happened though is that the indices, the dollar, gold and etc all hit support or resistance levels and made trend following bounces. I lost all 5 trades this week.